A 5 seed or worse that can make a deep run in their conference tournament

With the regular season wrapping up yesterday, it is officially Championship Week in College Basketball and the beginning of the best time of the year is here. Games will be on your TV before noon and won’t be over until after midnight. Every team has a chance to make it to the big dance by winning their conference, even the lower seeded teams. Some just need a run to get off the bubble and into the tournament, others need to outright win it. Here are a few teams you should not be surprised if they make a deep run in their conference tournaments.

I am going to limit myself to two 5 seeds, as listing all 5 seeds would not be any fun.

American - #6 Wichita State

How did they end the season?

Former Final Four and former one seed Wichita State, the Shockers finished sixth in their second season in the American. Winning five out of their last six, they finished 10-8 in the conference. While all five of those wins were to teams below them in the standings, they took care of business and won by double digits in most of them. A close three point loss to Memphis at home was their only blemish in the final two and a half weeks of the season.

What matchups do they possibly have?

I can almost promise they are going to beat Eastern Carolina in the opening round matchup. East Carolina has not been a threat to anyone this year. With this win, the Temple Owls will be waiting for them. Don’t get me wrong, Temple is a really good team, but the key is they avoided Houston and Cincinnati in the quarterfinals. Temple did beat Wichita State in Kansas, but it was a close game. Past Temple, they are most likely going to run into the big boys of the American in the later rounds.

Can they make the big dance?

Not likely unless they win this entire tournament. They just do not have enough quality wins. Most of their conference wins came against the bottom of the American. Their one bright spot is a win against Baylor. They could push themselves onto the bubble if they are able to beat Temple and Cincinnati, but winning the American tournament seems to be the only way to the big dance for the Shockers.

ACC - #7 Louisville

How did they end the season?

After started 7-1 in the ACC, Louisville stumbled to 10-8 in the ACC. Part of this is due to the schedule getting harder, but Louisville still has some quality wins. Road wins against UNC and Virginia Tech shows the potential of this team. Duke was down double digits to them while Zion was healthy, but came roaring back in the second half to pull of a win. Two of their final four games were against Virginia, losing both. A bad loss to Boston College is mixed in there and the Cardinals are 1-3 in the final four games. To make this run, they are going to have to find their first half of the ACC form.

What matchups do they possibly have?

Georgia Tech and Notre Dame will play for the privilege to play Louisville in their first matchup. Beating both of those teams comfortably during the regular season, they should not be a huge concern. After that though, it does not get pretty. To win the ACC they will have to go through a Duke team with Zion back, and then possibly UNC and UVA. It would be one of the best conference tournament runs ever if they beat three possible one seeds in the NCAA tournament. Against Duke, they have proved they can play well against them, being up double digits. UNC is hot right now but beat them in Chapel Hill this year. While unlikely, this could be an all time conference tournament run.

Can they make the big dance?

All the Cardinals have to do is beat whoever they play in their first matchup. After that, they are in. There is nothing wrong with losing to Duke or UNC if they get past Duke. Losing that first matchup would not put them on the bubble, put you could start to debate their seeding. The ACC is a stacked conference and being average in a stacked league still is better than most teams in the rest of the country.

Big East - Honestly any team ranked 5-10 in the conference, but since I have to pick, #6 Georgetown

How did they end the season?

This was the hardest conference to decide. Only Villanova and Marquette finished with conference records over .500. The only reason Georgetown is a six seed in this tournament is because of tiebreakers. Seton Hall, Creighton, and Xavier all share a 9-9 conference record with Georgetown. 4-2 in their last six, they have solid wins against Nova, Marquette and first round matchup Seton Hall. The two losses are bad though as they lost by 32 to DePaul and 13 to Creighton. You could take out “Georgetown” and insert any team not named Nova and Marquette and this paragraph would look nearly identical.

What matchups do they possibly have?

First round matchup for the Hoyas is Seton Hall. They split the season series, both with a win at home. Beyond that, there is no guarantee who they will play. If we are assuming the top seeds are going to win, Marquette, who has been struggling, would be the semi final matchup. St. Johns could find a way to pull off the upset and play Georgetown. This conference is so wide open, any team could win it.

Can they make the big dance?

I’m going to talk about the entire conference here, not just Georgetown. Right now, Lunardi only has four Big East teams in. Creighton are in his first four out and Butler are in his next four out. All it could take to get into the dance is a win against Villanova or Marquette. Four teams sounds right, as they are going to beat each other up. The conference is kind of like the Pac 12, except most of them are actually quality teams. If Nova and Marquette lose early, look for a fifth Big East team to sneak into the First Four.

Big 10 - #10 Penn State

How did they end the season?

This is easily the boldest prediction I am making. Penn State started with a 0-10 Big 10 record. They finished the year 7-3 with wins against Michigan and Maryland. With a top 10 SOS, this Penn State team has played some quality teams outside of the Big 10. Those last 10 games in the conference, Penn State has done what you’re supposed to do in the Big 10. Win most of, if not all of your games at home(4-0) and win road games against the lower ranked teams in the conference(wins against Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern). A big turnaround halfways through the conference season has Penn State labeled as a dangerous team.

What matchups do they possibly have?

With a final day win against Illinois, Penn State saved themselves from playing an extra game in the tournament. They square off against Minnesota who they lost to on the road during their 0-10 start. Penn State is a different team now and should be able win a close one against Minnesota. They then get unlucky and draw co Big 10 champions Purdue. Purdue is 2-0 against the Ninety Lions with a nine point OT win in Happy Valley and a comfortable twelve point win at home. Again, this is a different Penn State team. They are going to be able to keep it close against Purdue and may be able to knick a win. If they are able to pull the upset, they most likely will have the three seed Michigan and one seed Michigan State to deal with. It will be a rough road to the quarterfinals.

Can they make the big dance?

Will they? No. Should they? Probably not. However if they find a way to get past Purdue and can beat Michigan in the semi-finals I will go to my grave with this team being a tournament team. Yes, they will be a game under .500 but they have been playing at a high level. They will have two wins against Michigan, a win against Virginia Tech, Purdue, and Maryland. If they can pull those wins off, they’ll have five Q1 wins. That would be two less than Joe Lunardi’s last four in (Alabama, Clemson, NC State, and Temple) could possibly have combined. It is a stretch for Penn State to make it past the Big 10 tournament, but you can at least let me dream.

Big 12 - #5 Iowa State

How did they end the season?

Really poorly. Three losses in a row to inconsistent Texas, bottom of the conference West Virginia, and Texas Tech is not the way to end your season. Looking at the conference though, does anyone outside other low ranked seeds make you excited? The answer is not really. Texas has a first round matchup with Kansas, the winner of the play in games get the two co champions.

What matchups do they possibly have?

This is the only reason I picked the Cyclones to make a deep run. They are going to have a rough time against Baylor, who swept them this year. If they beat Baylor, they have one seed Kansas State. Iowa State surprisingly played them well this year. A win in Manhattan and a one point loss at home shows they can match up well against the Wildcats. Pulling the upset against KSU would lead to a championship against the winner of Texas Tech and Kansas. The Cyclones got the good side of the Big 12 bracket, but still have a mighty first round matchup against Baylor.

Can they make the big dance?

Iowa State is safe as far as the NCAA tournament is concerned. Finishing fifth in a power five conference not named the Pac 12 gets you an invitation. They are going to be on upset alert early in the first round though, especially if they lose in the first round to Baylor. Projected a five seed, they could go as high as a four seed with a couple wins in the Big 12 tournament, but don’t risk losing that much seeding.

Pac 12 - #6 Oregon

How did they end the season?

Oregon is a weird team in an awful league. Winning four straight to end the season, they beat conference champion Washington on the road on the final day of the regular season. Before the four game winning streak they lost three in a row to Oregon State, USC, and UCLA. Being hot at the right time is all that matters though. With four wins in a row, they are the hottest team in the conference.

What matchups do they possibly have?

As I said in the Big East section, the two conferences are very similar. The difference is the Pac 12 is not very good. Oregon is a six seed in this tournament because of a tiebreaker. With Utah in the first round, Oregon draws a team they beat on the road in their only matchup. Oregon’s defense will have to keep up the pace to beat Utah though. They have kept opponents to under fifty five in three out of the four games in the winning streak. If they make it past Utah, second seed Arizona State will most likely wait for them in the semi finals for a right to play in the championship. Oregon is a dangerous six seed who has a chance to make the championship game.

Can they make the big dance?

They are going to have to win the conference tournament. The Pac 12 should not even be considered a power five conference at this point and going 10-8 in a non power five conference does not get you an at large bid. The Ducks really do have a solid chance to win the championship though. As the hottest team in the conference, they are going to be a tough matchup against these top four seeds.

SEC - #5 Auburn

How did they end the season?

Auburn quitely won six out of their last seven games in the SEC. Of the six, three of those came against tournament worthy teams in Mississippi State, Alabama, and Tennessee. After starting the year as a top ten team, Auburn was inconsistent throughout SEC play. They live and die by the three ball and turnovers. If they can shoot 38 percent and cause double digits turnovers like they did against Tennessee, not many teams in the country, let alone the SEC, are going to beat Auburn.

What matchups do they possibly have?

Because of that huge win against Tennessee, the Tigers gained the five seed. Their matchups become easier because of this. They’ll get the winner of lowly Missouri or UGA. They are 3-0 against both two teams and should be able to take care of business. As for the quarterfinals, they’ll get the lowest seed out of the double byes with South Carolina. USofC beat the Tigers by three in Columbia back in late January. It will be a different game on Friday as Auburn was in the middle of a three game losing streak back then. If they get past the quarters, a likely matchup with LSU in the semi-finals is in store.

Can they make the big dance?

Auburn should be a lock for the tournament no matter what happens in St. Louis this week. The win against Tennessee put an any sort of discussion about them being on the bubble. Projected a six seed by Joe Lunardi right now, a win against South Carolina could improve them to a five. Watch out for Auburn as they’ll be looking to improve from last year’s dance as they got blown out by thirty by Clemson in last year’s second round.