The Crimson Tide are 30.5 point favorites against Duke. Do they cover?

Alabama is a ridiculous 30.5 points favorite in their opening game against Duke. The question is not really think the question for Alabama is will they win. The question is, will they cover?

Alabama is 9-1 ATS in regular season game against non-SEC P5 opponents. The only time they did not cover the spread was in 2014, when they beat West Virginia 33-23. Most of these games include serious blowouts and include a 51-14 win against Louisville, 52-6 win against USC, and 41-14 against Michigan. Alabama has taken the neutral site game route for their big time opening game. They have not played a home and home series since playing Penn State at home in 2010 and returning to Happy Valley in 2011.

In 2019, things will not be any different. Playing against Duke in Atlanta, the Crimson Tide are again, huge favorites. Right now, only four teams are favored by more in the opening weekend than Bama. The Tigers of Clemson are 33.5 point favorites against Georgia Tech, Texas A&M is favored by 34.5 against Texas State, and New Mexico State get 34 points against Washington State.

The difference between the two teams that played in the National Championship and Texas A&M + WSU is, they are playing Power 5 opponents on the road for Clemson and a neutral site for Alabama. Not cupcake games at home.

Alabama and their offensive weapons are loaded. Tua Tagovailoa is one of the favorites for the Heisman and ready to show the country what he has to offer after the Clemson game. The entire receiving core of Jeudy, Ruggs, Waddle, Smith are back. Even though Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs were lost to the draft, another three headed monster of Najee Harris, Brian Robinson, and 5* freshman Trey Sanders will not let the Tide running game miss a beat. There is no question they are going to score points.

Duke on the other hand will most likely struggle. Last year, Duke ranked 77th in total defense. Their quarterback is going to be taking his first snap of his college career against the Crimson Tide and will also lose their leading receiver, T.J. Rahming. Coming off an 8-5 season, Duke is most likely going to be lucky to stay in this game past the first quarter.

The question of “Do they cover?” most likely depends on Saban and his willingness to unload the offense. As the best first half offenses in the country last year, Alabama averaged 30.4 first half points and covered every first half spread except the Citadel and Auburn during the regular season. Tua and the group of receivers can score, and score fast. Even one quick 3 and out, and Duke may be out of the game.

My personal answer: Yes, Alabama covers. I think the Tide will pour as many points as they possibly can into the first half, and the defense will be good enough to keep Duke to under 20 points. Be careful for that back door cover, but Alabama -30.5 looks pretty nice.